A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
